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Consumer sentiment slips further on recession fears
Bangkok Post – 14 November 2008
PHUSADEE ARUNMAS
Consumer confidence fell in October to the lowest level in a year, dampened by the worsening global financial crisis and lingering domestic political conflict. The consumer confidence index (CCI) slumped to 75.8 in October from 76.8 in September, reflecting sagging confidence in Thailand's economic prospects.
The index is now at its lowest in 12 months _ since October last year when it stood at 75.5 before recovering to 76.2 in November _ according to the latest survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) based on tracking 2,241 respondents.
UTCC economist Thanavath Phonvichai said consumers remain highly concerned about the political situation at home and the global recession as well as higher costs of living.
The CCI combines indices measuring sentiment on the economy, job opportunities and future income. Although a score of 100 is the norm, the index has now been below 100 for 52 months.
In October all three key indices fell: sentiment about the overall economy from 69.5 to 68.9, job opportunities from 70.3 to 69.2, and future income from 90.06 to 89.5.
The index for confidence in the current situation also slipped from 69.1 to 68.1 _ its lowest point in 72 months since November 2002 _ reflecting the poor economic outlook in the eyes of consumers.
Mr Thanavath predicted that this index would fall to the lowest level in seven years if Thailand's economy did not improve next month.The survey's indices measuring demand for homes, cars and holidays all dropped, showing people's reluctance to spend.
It also found that the gross domestic happiness index had dropped below 100 in October to its lowest in two years.
''Economic growth is expected to worsen in the following quarters,'' said Mr Thanavath.
''There is no good news in sight to boost confidence, so it [the consumer confidence index] may drop steadily until the first half of next year.''
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